2015-12ȣ (2015. 7. 9)
ѱȸ ַ мǻ õ ֿ ̽ ؿܽ , ֿ ڷ Ͽ Biweekly Tex+Fa Brief մϴ.
ֿ ̽
ұû, ұ
ұû ұ 'ұ⺻ ' 6 25()ȸǸ Ѵٰ . ұ ñٷ 50 Ϸ з, 1ʹ 5 (12080503010) з. ̹ ұ ı ذϱ ߱ ұ 迡 ִ ޱ ø ʰų ̴ ϴ ѵ . ȿ ǰ ұ 80, Ǻ 120 ϰ ش. , û 13 10̻ мǻ ü(5,780) , Ͼ 100 ϴ 5,009 86.7%
ѡ߹ 6 FTA
δ 6 18() ߹ 6(, ٵ, µζ, ī, ڽŸī, ij) ȸ FTA . ߹ 6 GDP 2,098 ߳ 5, α 4,350 3 , ߹̰ ƽþ üϴ FTA ϴ ȿ . 츮 '14 ߹ 6 37.6(17.8%), 12.4(19.2%) . 2.3, 9 Ը ߱ ֱ Ҽ ̰
2030 ½ǰ ġ 37% Ȯ
δ 6 30(ȭ) 2030 ½ǰ ġ(BAU) 37% ½ǰ ǥ Ȯ. ̴ þȺ ġ ó 3(25.7%) äϵ, ½ǰ 11.3% ߰ . δ ̹ ǥ ø Ż , δ ȭ ̶ . , 츮 ½ǰ 09 2020 ġ 30% , ļġ ½ǰž ǥ(10), ǰŷ(15) ϰ , ǥ 23, ǰŷ 15簡 ް
мǾü ܿ Ʈ Ȯ ȹ
мǾ迡 δ ϴ Ȳ ܿ ü Ʈ ø ȹ . ȭ ַ ϴ ܿ 귣 Ʈ ֱ 5 ִġ . 귣忡 ϰ ִ ü鵵 Ʈ ũ þ ˷. Ʈ ȹ ֱ 2Ⱓ ٿ е Ǹŷ ΰ ü ̴ϸ ʰ 귣 û ߰ ҷ ֹ ϰ ֱ м
뱸-ж ڸŵ Ῥ Ȯ
뱸ÿ Ż жð 6 2() ڸŰῬ ü. ̹ 13 жÿ 뱸ð ڸŰῬ 14 3 ð ڸŰῬ Ű ϰ 4 뱸ȸ ̷ . 뱸 湮 7 1Ϻ 3ϱ жø 湮 ڸŰῬ ü 뱸ȫ , 뱸ж м ȸ, ѱ߿ Ż ȸ (MOU) ü . 뱸ô жÿ м, ó, , å о ٹ鿡 ģ Ȱȭ ȹ
ؿܽ
̱ мǾ, 5Ⱓ
̱мǻȸ(USFIA) 2015 мǻ Ī ŷ ͵ , ̱ мǻ 5Ⱓ ϰ ִ Ÿ. ƿ, TPP ȸ 72% TPP ȿ Ƿ ҽ TPP ȸ ȯϰڴٰ . ̱ мǾ TPP ݰŰ ū , ǰ ǰ (Short-Supply List) Ȯؾ Ѵٰ . ƿ, 2⳻ ҽ 翡 Ʈ 30 , ε 12, ̱ 11, δ 10, ۶ 10 Ÿ. ݸ, ߱(), 븸(), Ƽ() ҽ پ
Ű EU Ƿ
̽źҼǷȸ(ITKIB) , 15 1~5 Ű ߱ Ƿ ⵿ 19.2% 4,133, EU 18.6% 48.0 . ȭ (IMF) 14⸻ Ѻä Ը 3,173 ̸, GDP ä 177% . Ż(Ʈ) ȭ ༼ ̾ Ű ġ . , 15 1~5 Ű Ƿ 14.3% 67.1ҷ, EU ü 71.5% ϰ
þ, Ƿ귣
þ 14 11 ܱ Ƿ귣尡 þ 忡 ö Ÿ. Capital Economics ڷῡ , Ƶٽ 15 1б þ 14 1б 33%, 44% ϴ ü þ 20% شϴ 200 Ű , ɶ ũ ݳ þ 8 3 Ű . ̿ H&M, Monki, Uniqlo, Forever 21 SPA 귣 Ӵᰡ ȸ Ȱ Ȯ ȹ ˷
̱-ī AGOA
̱ ī ν ī ߹̱ Ƿ 14 10.4ҿ 25 40ҷ . ٸ ̱ 6 29 ī 39 ̱ ī 塤ȸ (African Growth and Opportunity Act) 10Ⱓ ī ̱ ȹ. AGOA 00 ܳ, 08 ̹ ѹ Ⱓ Ǿ 15 9 ̾. AGOA ϶ ̳ ġ 鿡 1 Ƿ ̱ ִ , ΰǺ ī Ƿ 忡 ũ
ֿ ǥ ڷ
, 15 5 ֿ ü ⵿
Ʈ ǰ(2.6%) Ǹ Ƿ(2.4%) Ǹ ϸ鼭 ⵿ 0.5% . ȭ ؿ귣, ǰ, ij־, ǰ ֿ ǰ Ǹ 3.1% (ȭ 0.8%, Ƶ 2.3%, ij־ 2.8%, ؿ귣 14.0%, 0.3%, Ƿ 0.3%)
< ü (⵿ %) >                                                                                                          '14 | '14 | '15 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
Ʈ | 3.4 | 1.2 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 10.1 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 18.3 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
ȭ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 3.1 |
ѻ, 15 3б
ü 2,400縦 15 3б (BSI) , 3б ġ б 9Ʈ ϶ 88 . ѻǴ ߱ ȭ, Ⱘҿ Ȯ꿡 , ܱ ް ü ģ м. BSI ġ 91 (87) , Ըδ ġ(83) ұ(88) Ÿ. ο ٶ åδ ۡ(49.8%), ڱݳ ؼ(23.4%), η (9.4%), (9.0%), ȯũ (7.2%) ʷ
ȸ, 15 3б
755 15 3б (EBSI) 98.4 , Ⱑ ⼼ . ǰδ ڵ ڵǰ(120.0), (117.3) κ б Ǵ . δ (102.2), (98.8) ռ, ä꼺(88.1), ǰ (88.7) . ū ַοδ (16.5%) . , Ǻ ǰ EBSI 98.9 ռ
鰡 Ʈ, ۶ ﱹ ¼ ̸鼭 10 ε 67.57Ʈ . ȭڹȸ(ICAC) ֱ 15/16 8.7% 2,392 ϸ鼭 ΰǺ ߱ 귮 540 16.0% . , ߱ 11/12 ߱ 100 Ǹ ǥ ǰ 鰡ݿ ũ ġ ̶ м. ȭ ϶ ߱ ; ҷ ϶
                                                               ǰ() | ¥ | 1 | 4 | 3 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(/LB) | 7/2 | ̱(15 10 ε | 67.57 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 6.4% |
PTA($/MT) | 7/3 | CIF China (90 days credit term) | 710 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
MEG($/MT) | 920 | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% |